Canh bao tu co phieu bien lai

Thi truong chung khoan (TTCK) Viet Nam dang chap chung nhung buoc di theo quy luat chung cua the gioi. Nhung de di vung thi con qua nhieu viec phai lam, nhat la trong tinh canh "nong lanh that thuong".
 
Cuoc trao doi sau day voi chuyen gia chung khoan Huy Nam se giup ban doc "nhin ro" hon TTCK hien nay.

Co hien tuong lam gia?

Ong danh gia the nao ve viec TTCK hoi phuc kha nhanh cuoi tuan nay?

Theo toi, viec TTCK Viet Nam sau ba phien rot gia qua nhanh da hoi phuc vao phien cuoi tuan ngay 16/3/2007 la "cong huong" cua nhieu yeu to. Mot so nha dau tu da tranh thu luc gia xuong manh de mua vao.

Nhieu dai gia, nha dau tu lon nam khoi luong lon CP blue chip khong muon CP cua minh xuong them nua nen da mua vao de "ho tro" cho CP dang nam giu khong xuong them nua.

Co nguoi cho rang, day la tro "lam gia" nhung nen nhin ca huong tich cuc vi no gop phan keo VN-Index hoi phuc nhanh chong. Hon nua, ngay 15/3/2007, TTCK the gioi da bat dau hoi phuc.

Su “dong danh” cua thi truong chung khoan trong tuan qua khien nhieu nha dau tu lo lang Anh: Hong Vinh

Toi cho rang, hoi phuc nhe thi minh co the yen tam. Rot manh qua hoac len nhanh qua cung deu bat on, khong ben vung. So di van con tinh trang nay vi nha dau tu trong nuoc van chay theo phong trao, do xo mua hoac ban lam thi truong von chao dao cang anh huong nang ne hon.

It co noi nao ma chi moi co vai tin xau hay tot du chua chinh thuc ma nha dau tu lai ao at ban gia san hay mua gia tran nhu o Viet Nam.

TTCK Viet Nam dang phat trien rat nhanh nhung lai "beo phi", dung nen de hien tuong do xay ra vi rat de "nhiem benh" va do nga.

Theo ong, hien tai TTCK Viet Nam co hien tuong "lam gia" khong?

Ngay truoc Tet Dinh Hoi, roi sau Tet, it nha dau tu khon ngoan hay nhieu kinh nghiem nao lai mua vao nhieu va luong ban ra cua ho tang len. Ho dau tu lau dai va phan lon choi chung khoan, so huu CP tu lau nen chap nhan va co phan thoa man voi loi nhuan neu ban vao thoi diem dau thang 2,3/2007.

Con cac quy dau tu thi vua qua la chu ky ho phai ban ra de co loi nhuan bao cao voi nhung nguoi gop von vao quy. Vi vay, toi cho rang, khong co hien tuong lam gia trong dot dieu chinh giam vua roi.

Tuy nhien, trong viec tang tang gia vao phien ngay 16/3/2007, khi ma nha dau tu nuoc ngoai mua vao rat it, ban ra nhieu, cac CP dang rot 3,4 phien lien tuc lai bi day tang kich tran thi co dau hieu cua su lam gia.

Ong co cho rang, nhung loi canh bao va phan tich cua cac to chuc nuoc ngoai ve TTCK Viet Nam doi khi chua phu hop voi thuc te nuoc ta?

Quy tien te quoc te  (IMF) phan tich va danh gia TTCK Viet Nam phat trien qua nong, chi so P/E trung binh len den 73, con nhieu nhan dinh trong nuoc cho rang bao cao cua IMF chua chinh xac va chi so P/E thuc te chi khoang 50.

Theo toi, P/E la 73 hay 50 khong phai la yeu to duy nhat de danh gia TTCK "nong" hay "lanh" ma con phai dua vao nhieu yeu to khac. Nhung muc dich cua nhung canh bao nhu IMF lam la muon TTCK cua chung ta phat trien ben vung.

Ho danh gia dua tren nhung co so cua tat ca cac TTCK lon khac, tu nhung kinh nghiem, tieu chi hang tram nam nay cua the gioi. Cho nen Viet Nam khong the tach khoi nhung co so chung ay, minh phai cong nhan nhung nhan dinh ay co gia tri de tham khao.

Toi van cho rang, the gioi danh gia TTCK Viet Nam tang truong qua cao va qua "nong" la co co so. Viec cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai giao dich cham lai, than trong hon da chung minh cho nhung canh bao ay.

Con danh gia chu quan cua tung gioi, tung nguoi cho rang, bao cao cua IMF co sai sot chi la cam tinh, co le do ky vong qua nhieu vao TTCK dang mang lai loi nhuan chong mat.

Chua phai thi truong OTC dung nghia

Ong co the phan tich thuan loi va rui ro cua TTCK Viet Nam hien nay?

Thuan loi la TTCK dang duoc moi nguoi chao don "nong nhiet". TTCK da tac dong va khien dan chung dem tien nha roi "cat giau" lau nay dua vao lam kinh te, giup dong von chuyen dong, tao ra  mot kenh dau tu, huy dong von hap dan doi voi ca trong lan ngoai nuoc.

Tuy nhien, hien nay phan lon von chi do vao TTCK thu cap de mua di ban lai kiem loi lan nhau. Muc dich lon nhat la dau tu vao san xuat kinh doanh van chua dat duoc. Hien nay, cac nha dau tu nuoc ngoai van thay TTCK Viet Nam hap dan nhung chung ta chua co cach tiep nhan dong von khong lo nay mot cach hieu qua.

Do dau tu theo phong trao con pho bien nen rui ro con kha cao, thi truong co dau hieu thuan theo quy luat nhung van chua on dinh, chac chan vi xoa di tam ly "bay dan" khong the mot som mot chieu, tang giam manh lien tuc nhu tuan nay roi se van xay ra.

Toi lo ngai nhat la thong tin duoc cong bo qua nhieu, nha dau tu khong biet tin vao nguon nao. Gioi truyen thong, bao chi cung co trach nhiem trong viec cong bo thong tin trong thoi gian vua qua.

Phai chang cac co quan quan ly dang lung tung voi thi truong OTC?

That ra, thi truong OTC o Viet Nam chi co ten goi vay thoi, chu chua phai OTC dung nghia. OTC tren the gioi deu co to chuc, khuon kho. Theo toi, phai nghiem cam ngay viec buon ban OTC duoi hinh thuc chi la bien nhan, quyen mua, tham chi chi la loi hua...

Nhung thu do khong phai la tai san thi sao ma mua ban duoc. Phai quy dinh ngay mua ban nhu tren la bat hop phap, la lua dao thi moi nguoi moi y thuc duoc nguy hiem.

Co ai cho mua ban giay to xe, bien nhan dong tien coc nha dau ma de OTC giao dich tran lan nhu vay? Hien nay, OTC phan lon mua ban trao tay, truc tiep va nen goi day la thi truong mua ban CP truc tiep. OTC dang qua hon loan va chua co bien phap nao quan ly kha thi.

Luat Chung khoan co nhung dieu khoan de quan ly Cty dai chung (dang chiem da so tren OTC) nhung chua quan noi cac Cty niem yet, cac Cty chung khoan con duoi bot cac nha dau tu thi lam sao quan ly, kiem soat noi hang ngan Cty co CP OTC?

Vua qua, co y kien phan doi manh me nhung quy che, bien phap quan ly TTCK, con ong co y kien gi ve van de nay?

Bat cu quy dinh nao lien quan TTCK muon kha thi deu phai dam bao hai yeu to: Quyen loi quoc gia va khong lam tat, giam nguon von dau tu dang do vao. Vua qua Moody's nang muc tin nhiem cua trai phieu Chinh phu la mot dieu tot.

Tuy nhien ho cung "nhac nho" ta nhieu van de ve nang luc quan ly, dieu hanh tai chinh sao cho khon ngoan va hieu qua nhat. Tren tay toi la tai lieu ma Moody's vua dua ra. Ho cho rang, su on dinh cua nen kinh te, tai chinh phu thuoc vao chinh sach, co che  co hop ly hay long leo.

Tu day, co the hieu la bat ky quy che, quy dinh nao cung phai dam bao hai hoa loi ich hai phia, tao su dong thuan cao va phu hop voi thuc te. Toi nghi, Chinh phu va cac co quan quan ly dang tich cuc, no luc di theo huong do. Vi the nen viec nha dau tu nuoc ngoai se o at rut von hay TTCK se sut giam manh, lau dai co le kho co the xay ra.

Cam on ong.

(TPO)