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Choi chung khoan can phai biet... chap nhan lo! |
Cac nha dau tu (NDT) dang bi hap dan boi loi nhuan tu thi truong chung khoan (TTCK). The nhung song hanh voi no la nhieu rui ro tiem an. Vi vay, NDT phai biet chap nhan lo neu muon gan bo lau dai voi TTCK.
Thong diep tren duoc dua ra tai hoi thao "Dinh huong dau tu chung khoan: nhan dien rui ro" do Bao Phap Luat TP.HCM to chuc ngay 23.3 voi su tham du cua rat dong NDT. Ngay phan mo dau, ong Dominic Scriven - Giam doc Cong ty Dragon Capital - cho biet: "O TTCK nuoc ngoai khong noi la kinh doanh chung khoan (CK) ma ho goi do la kinh doanh rui ro. Rui ro - loi nhuan la 2 mat khong the tach roi nhau khi noi den TTCK. Chung toi da dau tu tai Viet Nam 12 nam. Trong 3 nam dau chung toi khong co loi nhung cung khong lo vi khung phap ly luc bay gio chua duoc ro rang. 4 nam tiep theo, chung toi lo hon 30% von. 5 nam tro lai day chung toi moi bat dau loi khi thi truong phat trien. Diem lai 12 nam dau tu tai Viet Nam, loi nhuan binh quan ma chung toi co duoc la 15%/nam".
Ong Dominic Scriven cung cho rang ong khong dong tinh voi chi so P/E (thi gia co phieu tren thu nhap) cua TTCK Viet Nam ma Quy tien te quoc te dua ra la 75. Theo tinh toan cua cong ty, he so P/E nam 2004 la 7 nhung hien nay la 35. So voi cac nuoc khac nhu Singapore, My... thi P/E tai Viet Nam la cao. Nhung nam 2008, chi so P/E se giam vi mot so cong ty se tang von, phat hanh them co phieu (CP)...".
Mot trong nhung nguyen nhan khien TTCK tang manh trong thoi gian qua, theo Tien si Le Tham Duong - Truong khoa Quan tri kinh doanh, Dai hoc Ngan hang TP.HCM - la do tam ly lay lan cua cac NDT. Cac NDT hien nay dau tu thieu ly tinh, dau tu theo tin don nhieu hon. Trong thoi gian qua, cac co quan, to chuc, bao chi da lien tuc dua ra cac canh bao ve su rui ro cua TTCK nhung khong "ep phe" doi voi NDT. Boi sau khi cac canh bao duoc dua ra, gia CP van cu len. Nhung NDT nghe theo canh bao thi lai bi... lo nen dan den tinh trang NDT bat chap cac canh bao.
Tien si Le Tham Duong neu ra hang loat tam ly cua cac NDT tren TTCK hien nay nhu ky vong qua lon vao dau tu CP, cac NDT chi nghi den thang, tam ly nhe da, ca tin, ap luc nhom, tam ly ao anh...
Tra loi cau hoi gia CP giam bao nhieu thi NDT nen cat lo, ong Dominic Scriven cho rang khi quyet dinh dau tu vao CP nao thi NDT can xac dinh muc gia ban ly tuong, phu hop. Cac NDT khi tham gia TTCK nen san sang voi viec lo mat bao nhieu phan tram. Khi quyet dinh ban, NDT can thuc hien chien luoc binh quan gia CP. Vi du, NDT muon ban 100 CP thi co the ban ra tu tu 20, 30, 50 CP trong cac phien giao dich. Tuong tu lam dieu do khi mua vao.
De cac NDT phan nao tranh duoc rui ro ve tam ly trong tinh hinh TTCK dang "nong" va "ao" nhu hien nay, ong Le Tham Duong kien nghi tang cuong hoat dong tuyen truyen, canh bao, chuan hoa cac hoat dong tu van dau tu, tai co cau, Nha nuoc can can thiep thi truong theo mot cuong do nhat dinh, tang cung nhung cung tang chat luong hang hoa tren san...
Ong Nguyen Ho Nam - Tong giam doc Cong ty chung khoan Ngan hang Sai Gon Thuong tin (SBS) - cho rang khi dua ra mot quyet dinh dau tu, cac NDT can phan tich ve hoat dong kinh doanh cua cong ty phat hanh CP do, rui ro ve tai chinh cong ty, thanh khoan, thi truong (tin don, chinh sach bat thuong...). De co the phan tan rui ro, cac NDT nen thanh lap cho minh mot danh muc dau tu trong do co nhieu loai CP. O nuoc ngoai, danh muc dau tu khoang 20 CP tro len nhung cac NDT trong nuoc co the dau tu it nhat 3 - 4 CP. Khi thiet lap mot danh muc dau tu can mot so buoc co ban nhu dua ra cac tieu chi dau tu (loi nhuan mong doi bao nhieu, chap nhan muc do rui ro nhu the nao, dau tu trong thoi gian bao lau). Sau do phan tich ve nen kinh te, nganh, cong ty, chung khoan va dua ra cac quyet dinh de tu do thiet lap danh muc dau tu. Cuoi cung la theo doi va dieu chinh danh muc dau tu. Tuy nhien tot hon het la cac NDT thong qua cac quy dau tu chung khoan bang cach mua chung chi quy.
(Theo Thanh Nien)
Article source http://w4rum.com/894.t
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| [By Kimber Fulcher] [03/Mar/07] |
